The risk of Hurricane Patty forming in early November has increased, with multiple models predicting that either a tropical storm or hurricane could enter the Gulf of Mexico. Yesterday’s projections were mixed, with two models insisting on tropical storm development in the Caribbean south while two other models didn’t. But now all four models are predicting that a named storm might develop soon, though there are two separate paths that this could happen. If these two tropical storms indeed develop, the first would be named Patty and then second would be Rafael.
What is the potential path for Hurricane Patty and Rafael?
The American hurricane model, or GFS, projects that Hurricane Patty or Rafael could begin forming north of Puerto Rico and then move west around Florida and into the Gulf toward Mississippi by November 5-6.
Meanwhile, the European, German, and Canadian models predict that a storm will develop in the Caribbean gyre near Nicaragua and then move northwest toward the center of the Gulf within the same time period. This is partially due to a high-pressure system over the Atlantic that is pushing potential systems in the region to the west.
This is based on a new analysis by YouTube’s Mr. Weatherman, real name Brian Shields, on Thursday, October 31. Fortunately, even if a named storm were to develop within the area, colder waters around the American Gulf coast will likely reduce its strength. So it’s not likely that a Hurricane Patty or Rafael would have as much power as hurricanes Helene and Milton did earlier in the season.
AccuWeather has also updated its tropical storm projections on Thursday, stating that there is a near 90% chance of development of a storm in the Caribbean Sea. This is compared to just a medium 50% chance from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
It believes that a northern track for such a storm could impact the eastern Gulf coast, like South Florida, in the November 6-11 time frame. But it also has a chance of moving west over Central America instead, missing the United States entirely.
