Expert forecasters know much more about Hurricane Milton’s timeline on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as the storm steadily approaches Florida. While it was originally predicted that the system would make landfall Wednesday afternoon, a new update says that this is now likely to be around midnight between Wednesday and Thursday. Specifically, AccuWeather projects that it will hit Florida on Thursday at 2 AM local time. However, residents in Florida will experience the effects of Milton sooner than that, and the hurricane is expected to impact the state with heavy rainfall, strong winds, and life-threatening storm surge as it passes through the center of the state on Thursday.
What is the timeline for Hurricane Milton?
In general, Hurricane Milton will approach Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, make landfall near Tampa as a Category 3 before Thursday morning, and slowly weaken in strength throughout the rest of the day.
The following timeline and path for Hurricane Milton combines information from the National Hurricane Center, AccuWeather, the Pensacola News Journal, and The Weather Channel.
Hurricane Milton timeline on Tuesday
- 11 AM – Milton stands as a strong Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and is about 520 miles away from Tampa. It moves toward Florida at 9 mph in a northeast direction, moving across the Gulf of Mexico to the west-central coastline. It continues to barrage the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico with heavy winds and significant rainfall.
- 8 PM – Milton’s wind field is expected to grow in size as it remains a Category 4. The hurricane is projected to increase in intensity over the day before decreasing again.
Hurricane Milton timeline on Wednesday
- 8 AM – Staying a Category 4 hurricane, Milton will have 145 mph winds. At this point, the storm will have moved north of the Florida Keys, though it is still more than 12 hours away from making landfall. According to the “earliest reasonable arrival time” for wind effects by the NHC, they may begin to impact the Florida coastline.
- 8 PM – The wind speed for Milton will reduce to approximately 125 mph, between the border of a Category 3 and a Category 4. The hurricane will be very close to the Florida coastline near Tampa, with storm surge and wind effects most likely to impact the region. Winds anywhere from 120 to 140 mph are expected to batter the Tampa area. It will likely make landfall near midnight, From here, the storm is expected to cut through the Florida Peninsula and the into the Atlantic Ocean.
Hurricane Milton timeline on Thursday
- 8 AM – The hurricane is predicted to drop in strength possibly to a Category 1 or 2 with 100 mph winds. At this point, Milton will be near Orange, Polk, and Osceola counties. Over the course of the day, cities such as Tampa and Orlando will experience 8 to 16 inches of rainfall. Flash flood warnings for both of these cities remain high at 70% or more as the storm continues to move eastward. The storm surge for the Tampa Bay and Sarasota area is at an exceedingly high 10 to 15 feet.
- 8PM – By Thursday evening, Milton will drop to a tropical storm with approximately 75 mph winds. Areas along the eastern Florida coastline such as Daytona Beach and St. Augustine may experience minor storm surge from 3 to 6 feet as the hurricane lowers in intensity.
In addition to a flash flood warning, heightened due to storms earlier this week that have already saturated the soil, much of Florida is also under a tornado risk between Tuesday and Thursday. The greatest risk area stretches from Miami to the south and Orlando to the north. Similarly, the region between Tampa and Orlando has a high risk of a power outage.
Fortunately, cooler and less humid air is anticipated to arrive later in the week after Milton dissipates over the Atlantic Ocean, which will help in storm recovery and power restoration throughout the state.
