Much like actual drafts, fantasy drafting has become something of an art form. The numbers and projections are there for anyone to see, so the challenge becomes finding value in places that most others are not looking for and staying away from those players who are overvalued.
These rankings are devoted to players who have a disparity in where they are going in drafts with where they should be going based on their career trends. To be clear, not all of my “loves” should be first-round picks and not all of my “hates” should go undrafted. Simply consider choosing them above or below where everyone else is getting them. It's all about value.
One final note — since Starlin Castro appears in the “love” section of this list — I would like to apologize to all of Cubs Nation for irreversibly jinxing him. I’m so sorry.
Dylan Sinn is a freelance contributor for CraveOnline Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @DylanSinn or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
Photo Credit: Getty
Fantasy Baseball Love Hate
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Chris Johnson 3B – Atlanta
If we’re knocking Michael Cuddyer for his high BABIP and resulting fluky batting average in 2013, we should at least mention Johnson, as well. The Florida native hit a staggering .394 on balls in play, which, according to ESPN, is the sixth-highest rate for any player since 2000.
He surely won’t repeat his .321 clip from a year ago and he’s decidedly average in all other relevant categories-he only hit 12 home runs and, despite his high batting average, only reached base at a .358 clip. When you factor in his penchant for striking out too much and not walking enough, he might not have much value at all this year.
Hate
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Eric Hosmer 1B – Kansas City
Hosmer has been a disappointment after getting drafted in the first round in 2008 (not the first of Kansas City’s hyped prospects to struggle), but there are signs that he might be due for the breakout everyone’s been expecting for three years. In the final two-thirds of last season, the Florida native hit .318 with 16 home runs, ending the year at .302/.353/.448.
With some solid hitters (Omar Infante, Salvador Perez, Norichika Aoki etc.) around him, Hosmer could make a run at 100 RBI hitting out of the three hole this year and he won’t turn 25 until October. This is a guy with superstar talent and it’s only a matter of time until he unleashes it.
Love
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Freddie Freeman 1B - Atlanta
Freeman has been on my radar for a couple of years now as part of a young Braves core that might be poised to start another run of dominance similar to the one they enjoyed in the ‘90s. Freeman broke out last year, hitting .319/.396/.501 and adding 23 home runs for good measure.
Still only 24, the California native is continuing to improving his eye at the plate, as he’s upgraded his walk and strikeout rates each year of his career. Fresh off an offseason in which he signed a lucrative contract extension, NL East pitchers will be very afraid. Grab him in the second or third round if he’s still on the board.
Love
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Jason Kipnis 2B – Cleveland
I had Kipnis as the third-rated second baseman in my preview article on the position, just based on the track record of the two guys above him (Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia). I have a feeling, however, he might leapfrog one or both of them before this season is done.
The 26-year old Kipnis won’t hit .284 again, but he’ll reach .270 and that’s not nearly low enough to offset everything else he brings to the table. The Arizona State product will likely steal 30+ bases and hit 20+ homers, a rare combination, especially at second base. Even better, he’s improved his walk rate every year of his career and it seems as though he’s just scratching the ceiling of his potential.
Love
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Mark Trumbo OF – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Trumbo was one of my prize draft-day decisions a year ago. I reached for him in the fourth round of my 10-team league (after I had stacked up on batting average) and he rewarded me with 34 dingers, 85 runs and 100 RBI, so of course I’m going to be in his corner.
I love him again this year mostly because his batting average should rebound after he hit just .273 on balls in play in 2013. This improvement should put him at the .250-.260 range, so you won’t have to sacrifice average to get his massive power. His walk rate has improved dramatically in the last two years, as well, from 4.4 percent in 2011 to 8.0 a season ago. Everything about his numbers says he has room to improve on his stellar 2013.
Love
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Michael Cuddyer OF – Colorado Rockies
Cuddyer, a career .277 hitter who hit .260 in 2012, somehow slapped together a .331 average in 2013, good enough to win the NL batting title. It’s safe to say that he won’t be doing that again this season. His .382 BABIP was a whopping 70 points above his career average and ranked third in all of baseball.
Furthermore, he’s always been injury prone, playing 150 games just three times in his 13-year, and not at all since 2010. The decline in his batting average won’t be as steep as some are predicting thanks to the Coors Field cushion, but he’ll likely be a .290 hitter, and, if he misses any significant time, there’s no way he deserves to be ranked as the no. 10 RF, as he currently is on ESPN’s player rater.
Hate
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Starlin Castro SS – Chicago
Part of including the not-so-slick-fielding shortstop on this list is based on the Cubs fan in me hoping that he becomes the franchise cornerstone he looked like he would be two years ago. The other part is based in fact, and the fact is that Castro’s stock plummeted way too far after last year’s debacle.
The Dominican-born Castro still has .300 upside and is capable of swatting 20 home runs if the winds at Wrigley are favorable. He posted by far the lowest BABIP of his career last season, so he’s definitely a rebound candidate, but ESPN has him ranked 20th among shortstops, which is way too low. Don’t reach for him early, but if he’s still around in the middle rounds, grab him and hope a new manager can keep him focused.
Love
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Stephen Strasburg P – Washington
If you’re reading this, Stephen, please don’t take it personally, just know I had a poster of you in the prized spot on my wall when I was in high school. However, I can’t in good faith tell my fantasy-playing readers to trust drafting you in the early rounds.
First of all, even if you’re healthy the Nationals are going to skip your starts here and there to “preserve” you, whatever that means. Second, the chances of you staying healthy are very small. You’ve never pitched 200 innings in a season and your mechanics (similar to the ones that doomed the career of Mark Prior-*sigh*) are still problematic. Until you get them fixed, I have to tell my readers to stay away, no matter how nasty your stuff is.
Hate
