In Little League, the tallest kid tended to get placed over at first. It makes sense these big guys would be the tent poles of your fantasy teams. They tend to be the ones who prop up you in the power department. But, which ones will project the tallest shadow of the season?
To help you make informed decisions on which first basemen will provide the best stat help, I’ve compiled the averages from several projection models.
The table below is a consensus for all of the projections for first base with each player’s rank against other players at that position. Each ranking is then averaged out for a score. Read the nerdy fine print at the very bottom to learn how to use. These do not have “weights” added.
For example, Jose Abreu has some serious question marks since he lacks MLB experience, so he’ll be ranked much lower than Freddie Freeman (pictured above) in the official rankings. However, you can see what a steal Anthony Rizzo is based on the pure projections stats.
Here are the projections and rankings (remember this doesn’t include weights):
For fun, I include an Rank Score without the stolen bases.
Boom:
(Except you from Cubland) Raise your hand if you thought Anthony Rizzo would have higher projected numbers across all five categories than Freddie Freeman. It is why you shouldn’t look for steals from your first basemen in your head-to-head leagues. Rizzo is much better in a roto league; the same can be said about Eric Hosmer and Prince Fielder. Jose Abreu brings a lot of potential to meet those “best in Cuba” claims. His stats aren’t pie in the sky. It is based on several projections that have translated his Cuban stats. Prince Fielder is primed to take advantage of Arlington Park with top 10 rankings in 4 of the 5 categories. Can Brandon Belt beat his projections? They aren’t a bad place to start. Last year he was a waiver fodder.
Bust:
Allen Craig’s batting average is mighty pretty but can he stay healthy and repeat his RBI totals from last year? His teammate, Matt Adams, may be a sleeper pick darling but those projections are pig ugly. If Mike Napoli qualifies as catcher then he is a nice choice, but I’d stay away if he is first base only. He is bottom five in RBI, Runs, and batting average rankings for 1B. Age will catch up to Nick Swisher this year. Stay away. For that matter, Adam Dunn is done. And, put a lid on Adam Lind. Platooning will not help Nick, Adam or Adam either.
Here are the basics and ‘need to knows’ to understand how to use the chart:
· Projections for the basic five fantasy baseball categories: SB, HR, RBI, R, and AVG. Projections are based on several trusted projections datasets. A consensus removes the need to put all of your trust in a single source.
· Each player is ranked about the other players in that position. Their overall ranking is displayed in the “RANK SCORE”. That is the average in each of the rankings.
· You’ll notice that several players are higher/lower than you expect to see on a normal “rankings” list. That is because the “Rank Score” is not weighted for such things as position flexibility, stat importance, boom and bust probability, injury history, at-bat projections or year over year consistency.
· Over the next couple weeks, the CraveOnline fantasy team will be releasing their rankings for each position. I recommend using their rankings to give you the best recommendations around.
· I personally take these projections and add weights to determine my own rankings. From there, I’ll build a ‘draft map’ to help me strategize which targeted player to take in the draft. It helps to grab my “undervalued” guys at the right time. Last year, it was Matt Harvey and Starling Marte.
Now go forth and “win baseball” as my non-understanding girlfriend likes to say.
Brian Reddoch is a CraveOnline reporter and rabid fan of all teams Seattle. You can follow him on Twitter @ReddReddoch or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
Photo Credit: Getty
