The table below is a consensus of all of the projections with each player’s rank stacked against others at the position. Then each ranking is averaged out for a score. Read the nerdy fine print at the very bottom to learn how to use. These do not have “weights” added.
For example, Xander Bogaerts doesn’t have SS eligibility in some leagues the first week of the season, so he’ll be ranked much lower than J.J. Hardy in the official rankings. However, you can see what a steal Ian Desmond is based on the pure projection stats.
Here are the projections and rankings (remember this doesn’t include weights):
Pay attention to the drop-offs between one player at the position and the next guy. The color coding will help you see the drop from one tier to the next.
Boom candidates:
Jose Reyes can still offer 5 category production. Jump on him and love his stat lines. Lots of bag thieves are available at the SS position. Especially with Elvis Andrus (33), Jean Segura (36) and down deep with Jonathan Villar (38). Villar could be a great handcuff candidate if you take the injury risks of Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez. J.J. Hardy’s 20+ homers will be the last influx of power you’ll see come over the board and it will go late. Respect and appreciate the 4 categories Brad Miller and Xander Bogearts provide. Both are great quasi-sleeper candidates.
Bust candidates:
Jimmy Rollins and Derek Jeter are the only names at this point. The projections say stay away. Starlin Castro may have disappointed owners who over reached last year, but projection models say he will recover nicely. There are many rankings that have Castro going much higher than his projections state. “Nicely” is not the same as “fully fulfilling his potential”. Let someone else take the chance. Elvis Andrus’ lack of power stats really hurts him. He is over-rated on rankings per the projections models. Alexi Ramirez is an empty batting average now. Stay away unless you find yourself the last guy picking a shortstop.
Here are the basics and ‘need to knows’ to understand how to use the chart:
- Projections for the basic five fantasy baseball categories: SB, HR, RBI, R, and AVG. Projections are based on several trusted projections datasets. A consensus removes the need to put all of your trust in a single source.
- Each player is ranked in regards to the other players in that position. Their overall ranking is displayed in the “RANK SCORE”. That is the average in each of the rankings.
- You’ll notice that several players are higher/lower than you expect to see on a normal “rankings” list. That is because the “Rank Score” is not weighted for such things as position flexibility, stat importance, boom and bust probability, injury history, at-bat projections or year over year consistency.
- I personally take these projections and add weights to determine my own rankings. From there, I’ll build a ‘draft map’ to help me strategize which targeted player to take in the draft. It helps to grab my “undervalued” guys at the right time. Last year, it was Matt Harvey and Starling Marte.
Now go forth and “win baseball” as my non-understanding girlfriend likes to say.
Brian Reddoch is a CraveOnline reporter and rabid fan of all teams Seattle. You can follow him on Twitter @ReddReddoch or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
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