Prediction | Will the PlayStation VR Be a Success or a Failure?

With it now having been announced that the PlayStation VR is set to launch in October at a retail price of $399 (though it’ll set you back £349 if you live in the UK, because exchange rates mean nothing to hardware manufacturers), there are many who are growing increasingly excited about Sony’s first foray into virtual reality. 

But with VR tech being unproven and Sony looking to introduce it to a market that maybe just isn’t ready to lay down the cash to get their hands on the device just yet, here’s my prediction regarding whether the PlayStation VR will be a glowing success or a dismal failure:

Success: Emphasis upon multiplayer experiences

Games developed for virtual reality headsets such as the Oculus Rift and HTC Vive typically tend to focus upon single-player experiences, but this is not where Sony seems to be positioning the PlayStation VR. While it has a selection of games that allow players to fly solo, Sony has placed an emphasis upon multiplayer in its marketing materials thus far, including its virtual reality party game Playroom VR.

Playroom VR represents an area in which Sony could succeed with the PSVR. Seemingly having a great deal in common with the likes of Wii Sports and, to a lesser extent, Nintendo Land, this collection of VR-based mini-games is geared towards appealing to those who will be looking to play with the device on their couch alongside their friends/family, a great strategy for hardware that is being released in the run-up to the holiday season. Using this strategy, Sony could successfully make the headset more appealing to those who are not up to speed on current virtual reality tech, thus widening their potential market.

Failure: Price point

This issue isn’t solely limited to the PlayStation VR, but rather mostly all virtual reality headsets. Even though the PlayStation VR is priced lower than the Oculus Rift and HTC Vive, $399 is still more expensive than a PS4 console, with it therefore seeing Sony immediately fighting an uphill battle in bringing this unproven tech to a wide audience.

There’s little Sony could have done about this given that VR headsets are expensive to manufacture, but the fact still remains that the biggest stumbling block the company will face will be convincing consumers to throw down the cost of a gaming console in order to get their hands on what is essentially a high-end peripheral. This cost is then increased for consumers who don’t own a PlayStation Camera, which is either available to buy separately or as part of a pricier bundle announced for North America, and for those who don’t even own a PS4 it becomes a pretty grand financial undertaking that will set them back upwards of $1,000. 

Success: Simpler VR jumping-on point

While the PlayStation VR’s technology may not be as powerful as what is boasted by the Oculus Rift and the HTC Vive, it does offer a more affordable and simpler alternative for those looking to embrace the tech for the first time. With both the Rift and the Vive both retailing at considerably higher price points, they’ll also require the use of expensive PCs, making them a considerably more substantial investment. 

The PSVR is therefore a very attractive jumping-on point for those who want to experience VR for themselves without breaking the bank on unproven tech, with it still offering a very impressive experience but for less money, and with far less requirements to get it to work out of the box. Much in the same way that some find consoles more appealing than high-end gaming PCs, PSVR will be a less expensive, simpler way to enjoy virtual reality.

Failure: Sony’s track record

One determining factor in my own personal decision to abstain from shelling out for a PlayStation VR at launch, is Sony’s woeful track record when it comes to supporting gaming hardware outside of their home consoles. Reeling off the list of Sony’s peripherals highlights numerous failures, starting with the PS2’s EyeToy, right through to the PS Move and finally settling upon the PlayStation Camera. Each of these peripherals suffered from a complete lack of software right out of the gate, with Sony failing to adequately support them at launch and then throughout the entire duration of each of their short life cycles.

The same can even be said for their handheld consoles, as while the PSP and PS Vita each had their reasonable share of great games, there was an undeniable lack of effort on Sony’s behalf to push out actual system sellers on either console, with the Vita in particular being hugely disappointing given its technical capabilities. Though Sony have undoubtedly invested a lot of money in getting PlayStation VR off the ground, I simply don’t trust them right now to provide it with sustained support beyond 2017.

Success: Dry year for PS4 games

Aside from a smattering of notable releases such as the recent The Division and the upcoming Uncharted 4, the PS4’s scheduled line-up in 2016 isn’t exactly as jam-packed as it could be. While there were still inevitably be a few key announcements made before the end of this year, at the moment Q4 2016 of the PS4’s release calendar is relatively empty, which could actually stand to benefit the PSVR.

By the tail-end of 2015 the year had been filled with that many major video game releases that the thought of throwing down $399 on a VR headset would’ve been incomprehensible to those who had already laid down the cash for the likes of Fallout 4, Metal Gear Solid V, The Witcher 3 et al. If Sony keeps its line-up at the tail-end of the year as clear as it looks right now, then the PSVR could definitely court some people into trying it out in the middle of a drought of major releases. Of course, a lack of video games outside the PSVR’s line-up would be disappointing for those not looking to pick up the headset, but it would definitely be good news for the fortunes of the device.

Failure: Launch line-up

Hardware launch line-up’s aren’t exactly Sony’s strong suit, with this being echoed by the selection of games that will be available for the PlayStation VR come its release in October. While there are still more set to be announced, it looks like the PSVR is going to lack a heavy-hitter to really sell the headset to those who are sitting on the fence.

Having a major studio develop a VR game for the device’s launch would have been major selling point, because even though games such as RIGS: Mechanized Combat League and EVE: Valkyrie are appealing, they won’t convince console gamers to plump down their cash for the headset as much as a VR take on an existing franchise that they’re familiar with. These games definitely have the potential to offer great examples of what the PSVR is capable of, but if Sony wants to convince people to pick up the device at launch in their droves, then it could really do with some big names to join its line-up. Maybe this will change in the near future as Sony increases its projected line-up of games, but at the time of this writing it looks a little unlikely.

Prediction: Unfortunate Failure

I want the PlayStation VR to succeed as I’m very much excited for the future of virtual reality, but Sony’s previous failures with its peripherals and gaming hardware outside of its home consoles ensures that I remain very skeptical of their ability to carry the headset to continued good fortune. I think that its launch line-up is, in its current state, too sparse to court a substantial audience, which in turn will lead to Sony swiftly slowing down the development of software for it, as we have seen so many times in the past with the likes of the PS Vita and the PS Move.

After the inevitable initial surge of pre-orders and launch day purchases, I’m leaning towards the prediction that the PSVR will follow in the footsteps of Sony’s previous attempts at expanding its roster of hardware, and owners of the headset will find themselves with little to play. With that being said, I hope that this doesn’t wind up happening, but at this juncture I’m struggling to see a different outcome. Let’s hope I’m wrong.