Let me start off by saying I love all three of the following players. All are studs. All can mash. All would be welcome to date my daughter (if I had one.)
These guys are extremely popular players going into fantasy drafts this year. Here are just a few reasons why you shouldn’t reach.
Related: Fantasy Baseball 2015: 5 Breakout Hitters
Josh Helmuth is the editor of CraveOnline Sports.
Fantasy Baseball: 3 Overhyped players
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Christian Yelich
OF - Miami Marlins
Yellich is another young stud that will put up great numbers. But entering just his second full MLB season, there's good reason not to pay his current price tag.
The outfielder's ADP is currently at 82, No. 75 on Yahoo. Steamer projections have him at .270/13/57 with 18 stolen bases for 2015. Let's put that into perspective compared to players with similar numbers from last year.
2014 final rankings
#128 Drew Stubbs - .289/15/43, 20 SB
#126 Jason Heyward - .271/11/58, 20 SB
As you can see, if Yelich matches his 2015 Steamer projections, he would be around a top 125 player, not top 75.
I love Yelich's talent -- as do the Marlins based on their mega-contract they just gave him -- but there are other great outfielder's you can get much later who are just as likely to put up those same numbers: Leonys Martin (162 ADP), A.J. Pollock (184 ADP), Alex Rios (166 ADP), just to name a few.
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Dee Gordon
2B - Miami Marlins
Flash put up a career year last season, swiping 64 bases and finishing with a .289 average en route to his first All-Star game. However, there are some things you should know before paying his ADP of 63.
Gordon has been written up this off-season as one of the most likely bust candidates by nearly every fantasy publication out there. The reason? His 2014 season was a mix of some luck and a cold streak during the second half that revealed the hitter he most likely is.
Steamer, Fans, ZiPS -- they all have him projected to disappoint this year. The highest projection being ZiPs, which has him hitting .281 with 78 runs and 50 stolen bases. The worst projection has him at a .256 average and just 48 swipes. So why the drop off?
Not only does Gordon go to a team that scored fewer runs than his Dodgers did last year, but Gordon's second half last season was less impressive than his first.
He started out the year hitting .292/.344/.398 with 43 steals. The second half? .284/.300/.348, stealing just 21 bags.
Still not convinced? Gordon's BABIP sat at a career high last season at .346, and he only walked 4.8 percent of the time.
Gordon is a very good player but many don't believe he's an All-Star. In my opinion, the only way he's worth a top 60 pick in your league is if stolen bases and triples are counted as premium assets. Don't overpay for speed when the player is just a one category stud.
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Kris Bryant
3B - Chicago Cubs
Don't get me wrong. I love Kris Bryant as much as anyone. The kid is absolutely amazing. He's terrorizing pitchers in Arizona right now, leading all of Spring Training with 8 HRs and a monster 2.072 OPS, all of this after he lead the minors in HRs last year and all of college baseball in homers the year before. By now, we get it. He hits home runs. That's what he does. He's special. But now Yahoo has pushed him up their rankings to No. 98 -- that's dangerous territory.
Will Bryant likely be a top 100 player? Absolutely. Hell, he could even be top 25. He's that special. But taking him as a top 100 player right now with so many questions marks is a gamble.
The Cubs won't likely keep him in the minors long, so I wouldn't worry too much about missing him in your lineup the first 2-3 weeks of the season. However, don't forget this is a guy without a single MLB at-bat. Zero. How will he adjust to Major League pitching? What will his defense be like at third base? Will he chug Pabst Blue Ribbon with Wrigley's Best? Too much we have to know.
Historically, we've seen guys belt 30-plus home runs as rookies -- Frank Robinson hit 38 HRs in 1956 as a rookie -- but most of them ended up being Hall-of-Famers, or played during the PED era. For Bryant to give a great return on investment this year, he would need to hit close to 30 HRs or more. It could happen -- ZiPS has the highest projection for Byrant, listing 29 HRs and a .256 average.
But let's compare to other players with similar numbers from last year and their comparative ranking from an OPS league:
No. 96 Marlon Byrd - .264/25/85
No. 94 Chris Carter - .227/37/88
No. 92 Marcell Ozuna - .269/23/85
You can see as good as these players were last year, they were still barely cracking the top 100.
Bryant is a great player and I'm a believer; his current ranking is probably even fair. But be careful. Considering every league has a Cubs fan, someone is going to over-reach even further than he is already ranked, meaning the hype has probably gone too far.
