I will never forget the first year I filled out an NCAA Tournament bracket. It was the year 2001. I had picked Duke to go all the way — which they did — and I won every pool I entered, winning hundreds of dollars. I was hooked.
I haven’t won a penny since.
That’s why they call it March Madness. Call it beginner’s luck or just being a once-in-a-decade genius… ok, it’s basically luck, the point of filling out your bracket should simply be about fun and not so much about letting a No. 13 seed ruin your entire weekend.
Whether you’re a veteran like me or a newbie just trying to figure out what the all the hoopla (pun intended) is all about this March Madness, I have some very basic tips and trends to present to you on how one should fill out their bracket.
First, let’s go over rules:
Rule #1 – Advance all No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to the second round (now they call it the third round because of the ‘play-in’ games, but essentially move them to the round of 32). Go ahead, just pen them in. No need to do research or over-think it. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the first round to a No. 16 and a No. 15 has only beaten a No. 2 seed seven times, ever.
Rule #2 – Don’t pick all No. 1 seeds to the Final Four. This has only happened one time.
That’s about it if we don’t want to get stingy. From here on out it’s totally up to you on how much fun you want to have with it. After all, your goal isn’t to necessarily get all the games correct, (which according to reports following the announcement of Warren Buffett’s $1 Billion Challenge you have only a one in 9.2 quintillion chance of doing so) but to simply beat everyone else in your pool.
If you’re a stats junky like me, here are a few that are good to know:
- Since 1985, on average, 4.45 teams seeded No. 11 or worse have advanced to the round of 32 while an average of 1.69 teams seeded No. 13 or lower have done so each year. Only one year since then has a team seeded No. 7 or lower not made the Sweet 16. So think about picking four or five deep sleepers in the first round with one of them making the round of 16.
- A No. 13 seed has beaten a No. 4 seed in each of the last six years.
- Only six times has the total of the seeded teams been larger than 14. So for your Final Four picks, try to keep the total of all four low.
- Five teams seeded 5th or lower have reached the Final Four since 2010.
- Last year three No. 12s beat No. 5s.
- There have only been three years since 1979 when a No. 1 failed to make the Final Four.
But if you’re way more casual about the process, don’t fret. I kid you not that it’s usually someone’s mother, daughter or sister — who knows nothing about basketball — who usually wins ‘the pool.’
How do they do it? One way — as Yahoo Sports guru Brad Evans has seen first hand as well — is through the ‘mascot method.’
Exhibit A: The Mascot Method
For instance, No. 8 Colorado plays No. 9 Pittsburgh in the first round. You taking a Buffalo or a Panther? Mark up Pitt on that one.
What happens when a Michigan State Spartan goes up against a Cincinnati Bearcat? Taking Sparty there.
Or how about a potential Final Four matchup where a Florida Gator faces off against a Wichita State Shocker? First, what the hell is a Shocker? Would the Gator be electrocuted? Or is this just a gator attack upon a whimsical farmer? I’m confused… you can see this isn’t always easy, but it’s fun, and it works. Just ask Evans, who told me one of the best brackets Yahoo has ever seen came from a librarian in Oregon who used the mascot method.
Exhibit B: The Cute Coach Method.
UCLA’s Steve Alford vs. Tulsa’s Danny Manning?
Kentucky’s John Calipari vs. Michigan’s John Beilein
Don’t lie — you can see how this would be addicting. However, I can’t lie, I feel really weird typing the word ‘cute.’
Exhibit C: Vegas
Of course if you love crunching numbers and love to gamble, one sure-fire way to pick an entertaining — although more ‘chalk’ — bracket is to go by Vegas odds. Below are the top 16 teams Vegas thinks has a chance to go all the way.
Best Vegas title odds
1. Florida (9-2)
2. Michigan State (5-1)
3. Arizona (7-1)
4. Louisville (7-1)
5. Kansas (10-1)
6. Duke (15-1)
7. Wichita State (15-1)
8. Syracuse (15-1)
9. Virginia (18-1)
10. Wisconsin (20-1)
11. Michigan (25-1)
12. Villanova (25-1)
13. Creighton (25-1)
14. Iowa State (35-1)
15. UCLA (35-1)
16. Kentucky (40-1)
And finally, for added fun, below is an excerpt from ESPN’s monster March Madness site. The point here being to, once again, keep an eye on which teams are on upset alert.
Top 10 most likely opening-game upsets
The Giant Killers team offers up the 10 most likely lower-seeded teams to win their first game, along with the odds of the upset.
1. Iowa over UMass (78.4 percent)
2. Tennessee over UMass (70.1 percent)
3. Xavier over Saint Louis (48.9 percent)
4. Harvard over Cincinnati (36.2 percent)
5. Providence over North Carolina (34.9 percent)
6. North Dakota State over Oklahoma (34.1 percent)
7. North Carolina State over Saint Louis (26.6 percent)
8. Stephen F. Austin over VCU (24.9 percent)
9. Nebraska over Baylor (22.4 percent)
10. Tulsa over UCLA (16.4 percent)
Best of luck this March Madness. Just remember that when your bracket is completely busted by Thursday night because of the No. 2 seed you had winning it all lost in the first round, you’re still in the 98th percentile. That’s March Madness baby!
Josh Helmuth is the editor of CraveOnline Sports. You can follow him @JHelmuth or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
Photo Credit: Getty
