Will Grand Theft Auto 5 Be the Best-Selling Title of the Generation?

Grand Theft Auto 5 has remained the most discussed game of the past year. Even before it was formally announced, there was daily speculation as to what Rockstar Games’ plan was for its famous action-adventure series. Following its debut, not only has it commanded a lot of attention, but people are already considering how successful it will be. The question is, can it be the best-selling title of this generation?

Grand Theft Auto’s success

The GTA series is not only successful, it’s an industry leader. Since the release of Grand Theft Auto 3 in 2001, every release has caused mayhem similar to a console launch at retailers. While GTA 3 would manage around 15 million sales during its lifetime, Grand Theft Auto IV would surpass 25 million in under four years.

GTA 5 is already estimated to sell between 18-20 million during its first year by a variety of analysts; that’s around 20 times what most games need during their lifetime to be considered triumphant.

The most expensive game ever made

GTA 5 practically redefines AAA with its massive $265 million budget. That number is not only more than double that of its predecessor, but dwarfs any other game in the industry. Better yet, it’s been almost as much of an investment as the most costly films in movie history such as Titanic and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.

While a budget isn’t everything, it does indicate how much work, thought, and testing has gone into the title. It also hints at how many people have worked on the five-year project. With plenty of opinion to go around, along with the blood, sweat, and tears, it won’t be particularly surprising if it garners dozens of perfect scores. If not, at the very least it’ll be a very cinematic experience, and cinematic games sell.

Ending the generation with a BANG

Many question why GTA 5 is a current-generation game, and the question is quite simple. Would you rather release a game to an install base of over 155 million, or under 10 million? When GTA 5 releases it will be on only two platforms, but those two platforms alone are as much as half of the United States’ population. Part of that is due to affordability. The barrier of entry is quite small when an Xbox 360 or PS3 can be purchased for under $249. When it comes time for the holiday rush and casuals can pick up a 500 GB Grand Theft Auto 5 PS3 bundle for $269 or less, a PS4 for $399, or an Xbox One for $499, the decision won’t be as easy as you might think.

A PC jolt in the future

All the evidence suggests that a PC version of GTA 5 will eventually release. Each of the four past releases have, what would make this $265 million different? Sales on Xbox 360 and PS3 will make up the majority of sales, but you should never underestimate how many PC gamers there are. All it would take is a sale on Steam to boost the figures by hundreds of thousands.

The competition

This generation had a few major releases, but they fall into one of two categories: Call of Duty and bundle titles. Call of Duty has broken the 15 million mark five years in a row with yearly releases from Treyarch and Infinity Ward. The latest release, and the last that doesn’t come to next-gen hardware, is Call of Duty: Black Ops 2, which is expected to settle anywhere between 25-27 million when all is said and done. That’s across four major platforms, mind you.

Bundled games are hard to quantify. The Wii’s included Wii Sports has around 83 million units sold, but is included with nearly every console Nintendo sells. The same goes for Kinect Adventures which came packaged with the Kinect.

The verdict

If I was a betting man I’d say that GTA 5 will surpass its #1 competition, Call of Duty: Black Ops 2, to become the best-selling game of the generation. It’s not a yearly release, is highly marketable (commercials during Breaking Bad are no joke), and most importantly is Grand Theft Auto. Next week it’s presence will be known by the world due to its massive marketing budget. Given how fantastic it looks, what a great way to end an epic generation.