With the shortened 2019 Hollywood awards season coming to a close, that can mean only one thing: the Oscars are right around the corner. Now that the ballots for the 2020 Oscars have officially been cast and the fates of the eventual winners and losers have been sealed, it’s time for the moment that everyone has been waiting for: arbitrary predictions about a meaningless award system that is intended to promote certain agendas and to sell ads to consumers. Rather than ranking the movies that are most like to win at the 2020 Oscars ceremony – because that’s almost as conventional and boring as the ceremony itself – we’re going to take a slightly more interesting approach by doing the exact opposite. With that in mind, here are the sure-fire losers in every major category of the 2020 Oscars (that are still totally worth your time regardless.)
Cover Photo: 20th Century Pictures
Mandatory Awards Show Battles: Golden Globes vs. the Oscars
Honest Opinion: Why ‘Joker’ Doesn’t Deserve an Oscar For Best Picture
Final Prediction: The Oscars are ultimately meaningless and you should love what you love, whether it wins awards or not.
2020 Oscar Movies That Absolutely Wont Win
-
Best Picture
In any other year, Ford v Ferrari would easily be the Best Picture frontrunner. Despite being wholly entertaining and worthy of a nomination, the fact is that the film will have to settle for unequivocally being the best “dad movie” of the year. Just about everything else has a legitimate shot in one way or another.
Least Likely to Win: Ford v Ferrari
-
Best Director
As much as the DC apologists would like to argue that Todd Phillips is somehow getting shafted in the directing category, the truth is that he’s lucky to be nominated in the first place. Although Phillips' direction is solid (but not amazing), he’s also the only director this year not to receive a nomination from the Director’s Guild of America. With only seven exceptions to the rule, the DGA winner has predicted the Oscar every year since 1949. Those are tough odds for Phillips, so he should just be happy about the nomination.
Least Likely to Win: Todd Phillips, Joker
-
Best Actress
With Renée Zellweger sweeping just about every Best Actress category throughout the 2019 awards season, she’s pretty much a lock at this point. With that in mind, it also makes Cynthia Erivo’s nomination for Harriet feel like more of a glaring diversity nomination than anything else.
Least Likely to Win: Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
-
Best Actor
Similar to that of the Best Actress category, Joaquin Phoenix has all but wrapped up his first Oscar win. On the other hand, Jonathan Pryce will just have to make up for the fact that he won’t win by knowing that he was, indeed, the best pope.
Least Likely to Win: Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
-
Best Supporting Actress
While Laura Dern is the frontrunner in this race for Best Supporting Actress, both Margot Robbie and Kathy Bates were surprising nominations this year. Robbie will probably win her Oscar sooner rather than later, it just won’t be for her role in Bombshell.
Least Likely to Win: Margot Robbie, Bombshell
-
Best Supporting Actor
With The Irishman likely splitting the vote with two nominations this year, Brad Pitt is likely to finally get his long-overdue Oscar win. Truth be told, the only way Tom Hanks wins is if he gets pity votes simply for being a national treasure. It’s the definition of a long shot.
Least Likely to Win: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
-
Best Adapted Screenplay
Although the Best Adapted Screenplay race at the 2020 Oscars is the widest open that it’s been in a few years, Joker is the least likely nomination to win. The script by Todd Phillips and Scott Silver is subpar at best, which means that it’s also a miracle that the duo was even nominated in the first place for their on-the-nose screenplay (pun intended).
Least Likely to Win: Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker
-
Best Original Screenplay
While there are some extremely strong candidates for Best Original Screenplay this year, the most deserving ironically have the worst odds to win. While Parasite is arguably worthy of the win, there’s no doubt that Knives Out is easily the most “original” of the Original Screenplay nominees this year.
Least Likely to Win: Knives Out
-
Best Cinematography
If there’s one absolute lock for a category this year, it has to be for Rodger Deakins’ work on 1917. While the rest of the nominees are also screwed, did anyone really believe that a movie like The Lighthouse would win in this category? The Lighthouse is a beautiful-looking film, but it’s hard to stack up a black-and-white movie shot in a 4:3 aspect ratio against a visual tour de force like 1917.
Least Likely to Win: The Lighthouse
-
Best Costume Design
Even though Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a clear frontrunner for Best Costume Design at the 2020 Oscars, there’s one movie that absolutely won’t win: Jojo Rabbit. As good as the costume design is for Jojo Rabbit (and it’s very good), there’s no way in hell that the Academy is going to award a movie that mainly utilizes Nazi costumes, even if they are made out of cheap paper.
Least Likely to Win: Jojo Rabbit
-
Best Film Editing
Best Film Editing is always a tough pick, and this year is no different. While this category in particular is essentially a two-horse race between The Irishman and Ford v Ferrari, Joker is probably the least likely to win. In short, there’s nothing about Joker’s editing that would suggest otherwise, especially when legendary editor Thelma Schoonmaker is the frontrunner.
Least Likely to Win: Joker
-
Best Production Design
This year’s Best Production Design winner will probably be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and deservingly so. On the flip side, Parasite also has incredible production design. It just happens to be less flashy and more invisible, which also means that it has virtually no shot to win, especially against Barbara Ling’s incredible recreation of 1960s Los Angeles.
Least Likely to Win: Parasite
