The NCAA March Madness tournament tips off today, and one player you should get familiar with if you’re not already is Creighton University forward Doug McDermott. The senior sharpshooter currently leads the nation in scoring with 26.9 points per game, which is more than a point higher in average than the next closest guy. He has also led his Bluejays team to a 3-seed in the west region, and many expect them to advance far into the tourney.
Naturally, with McDermott’s impressive season and college career in general – he is currently the 5th all-time scorer in college basketball history, with a good shot of moving up to #2 or #3 by winning a few more games – a lot of people are now talking about his NBA draft stock. In fact, after lighting it up in the Big East tournament, many experts are now projecting him to be taken in the top ten of the 2014 NBA Draft. Recent comparisons to Larry Bird and Dirk Nowitzki are only going to add fuel to the debate on where McDermott should be taken and what his NBA future will hold.
However, if history is any indication of McDermott’s success in the NBA, the outlook is not so good. The chart above includes every NCAA season scoring leader since the 1984-85 season, the first year the March Madness field expanded to 64 teams. Including McDermott’s current season, we have 30 years of data that strongly suggests that players who score a lot of points in college do not go on to NBA greatness. Let’s break it down by the numbers:
12 – In the last 30 years, 27 players have won the college scoring title, as three guys won it in back-to-back seasons (Charles Jones, Keydren Clark and Reggie Williams). Of these 27, only 12 were even drafted. McDermott would be the 13th.
8 – Players taken in the top ten of the NBA draft.
78 – The total number of combined seasons played in the NBA by NCAA season scoring leaders from the past 30 years. 18 of those are courtesy of Kurt Thomas.
0 – NBA All-Star selections Kurt Thomas received.
5 – NBA All-Star selections received by all other former NCAA season scoring leaders (total).
28.9 – Average PPG of players during their college scoring title seasons.
10.9 – Average PPG in the NBA of players who made it there (15 of the 27 did not).
Notes:
Looking at the chart, one thing that stands out is that the large majority of players who were season scoring leaders were either juniors or seniors. Only one freshman and one sophomore have won the college scoring title since 1985.
Out of the past 30 season scoring leaders, only two were from schools in “major” basketball conferences. Three if you include McDermott since Creighton recently moved to the Big East. The rest are from schools that would be considered Division I mid-majors.
Although the majority of the players listed were not drafted by NBA teams, almost all of them went on to play professional basketball in some regard, mostly overseas.
Last season’s NCAA scoring leader, Erick Green, is currently under contract with the Denver Nuggets, but is playing overseas to develop his game more. He has not debuted in the NBA yet, and possibly never will.
Of all these players, two went on to win NBA Championship rings: Glenn Robinson did it with the Spurs in 2005, and Adam Morrison somehow got himself two with the Lakers.
Sources: Basketball-Reference.com, ESPN.com
For more March Madness fun and a chance to go to the 2015 NCAA® Final Four, check out “Clash of the Underdogs” from DegreeBasketball.com.
