Forecasts predict that Hurricane Milton will be worse than Hurricane Helene in several ways when it hits Florida on Wednesday and continues through to Thursday. The National Weather Service (NWS) has already announced on X (formerly Twitter) that Hurricane Milton has become a Category 5 through rapid intensification. Many residents are still recovering from the impact of Hurricane Helene, which caused significant storm surge in Florida and major flooding in Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. By comparison, Hurricane Milton is predicted to mainly impact Florida, but the threat is much more pronounced for counties along the central coast of the state.
How does Hurricane Milton compare to Hurricane Helene?
Hurricane Milton is expected to be worse than Hurricane Helene in terms of storm surge particularly for Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and other areas in between along the western Florida coastline.
The forecast for Hurricane Milton from the NWS on Monday at 10 AM CDT has Tampa Bay receiving 8 to 10 feet of storm surge and 5 to 10 feet for Charlotte Harbor. This is more than double than that of Hurricane Helene, where Tampa Bay received 3 to 5 feet of storm surge and Charlotte Harbor had 2 to 4 feet, as noted by CBS News.
As documented by Jonathan Petramala on YouTube, Tampa has already been devastated and “overwhelmed” by Hurricane Helene. Many areas of the city are closed off, with mounds of sand and debris piled along the roadside. It is recommended that residents remove these piles of debris as soon as possible, since they can become dangerous projectiles during a hurricane and block storm drains.
As far as overall strength, Hurricane Milton has already become a Category 5 in the Gulf, where Hurricane Helene remained steady as a Category 3 and became a Category 4 when it made landfall. As explained by weather analyst Ryan Hall, Hurricane Milton is predicted to become larger and spread out early Wednesday. Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken in intensity to a Category 3 or lower as it reaches the Florida coastline due to wind shear and dry air.
However, before Milton weakens, it will still create a high amount of storm surge along the southeast corner of the storm. The unique approach of the system is expected to make a direct hit on Tampa, though the hurricane has been heading south over the last several days, with Hall saying that the storm surge could reach up to “15 feet.”
Once Milton heads through the heart of Florida, heavy rains and potential flash flooding will impact the northeastern parts of the state, like Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. Fortunately for Georgia and South Carolina, the path of the storm will likely not head through those states.
It should be mentioned that the models for Hurricane Milton have increased since Saturday. It was previously predicted to be a Category 3 or only a Category 4, with forecasters not expecting how quickly the storm has intensified. If it continues to gather strength, the amount of predicted storm surge will increase even further.
