Weather experts are expecting Hurricane Helene to make landfall soon, prompting residents along the Gulf Coast to wonder how strong it’s going to become. On Tuesday, September 24, the system is a tropical storm dubbed “Tropical Storm Nine” as it gets closer to western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, but it will gather strength as it moves toward the United States. Most projections have the heart of the storm landing in the panhandle region of Florida. Here’s what category hurricane experts project Helene to become.
What category will Hurricane Helene become when it hits Florida?
Experts believe that Hurricane Helene could have “at least Category 3 intensity” as it continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico before landfall.
[Update: 9/25, 8:50 PM PT – Several forecasts late Wednesday say that the hurricane will potentially become or is “expected to reach” a Category 4, according to CBS News and PBS.]
This is according to The Weather Channel, which is supported by an updated projection by AccuWeather on Tuesday. A Category 3 hurricane, like Irma in 2017, has winds between 111 and 129 mph. That said, there’s a possibility that Hurricane Helene might become even stronger.
The Weather Channel points out several factors that will likely intensify the storm. In particular, the Gulf of Mexico’s temperature are at record high levels for this time of the year, which meteorologist Ben Noll previously shared on X (formerly Twitter). Upper level winds are also forecasted to spread apart over the hurricane, which is “favorable for strengthening.” Both of these factors will make it easier for the storm to gather moisture and develop stronger winds.
The system is expected to become a hurricane when it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, as heavy rains and strong winds impact western Cuba. It will then travel toward Florida as a larger hurricane, making landfall on Thursday afternoon or night. It should be noted, though, that rainfall, winds, and storm surges can still be particularly intense outside of the center of the storm.
A state of emergency has been declared in Florida with evacuation orders issued for Charlotte County and Franklin County. In total, the state of emergency encompasses 61 out of 67 counties in the state, particularly those around the Panhandle and Tampa Bay area. Many counties along the Gulf Coast have been placed under hurricane watch.
